CourtsideIQ / Research notes

A valuable contract is not a contract prediction.

Our models. Explained in basketball terms.

Two players can deliver similar production and have very different Smart CVR scores. That is intentional: the contract lens asks what the production costs, not only how good it is.

What the salary lens measures

The current data-builder formula estimates a salary value from scoring, rebounding, assists, true shooting, and an honors adjustment. It bounds that estimated annual value between $2 million and $65 million. It then compares the estimate with an effective salary that has a $10 million floor, transforms the ratio onto a 100-centered scale, and bounds the result between 40 and 150.

The salary floor is a modeling choice. It prevents a very small salary from producing an enormous ratio. It is not the NBA veteran minimum, a statement about a player's actual pay, or a cap rule. Those are different questions handled through contract context.

Read the scale correctly

Illustrative ratios before the display bounds are applied
Model value ÷ effective salarySmart CVRMeaning inside the model
0.575Model value is half the effective salary.
1100Model value equals effective salary.
2125Model value is twice effective salary.
4150Model value is four times effective salary.

The logarithmic transformation means score differences are not salary percentages. Moving from 100 to 125 represents a doubling of the ratio in this example, not a 25 percent increase. Values at the upper or lower bound also conceal differences beyond the display range.

Try a worked example

This demonstration starts after the production-to-value calculation. The numbers are hypothetical, not an estimate for a named player. Change the model value or annual salary to see the floor and scale in action.

125.0 Smart CVR · $40M model value ÷ $20M effective salary = 2.00×

100 + 25 × log₂(model value ÷ effective salary), bounded to 40–150. In the initial example, $40 million divided by $20 million equals two, producing 125.0. Reduce the actual salary below $10 million and the denominator stops falling; the model deliberately stops rewarding further reductions.

Why this is not a next-contract offer

A salary-value score describes the relationship between a production estimate and the salary used in that calculation. A new deal also depends on age, availability, contract timing, term, guarantees, roster needs, and what another team is willing and able to offer. A player's current bargain salary does not itself reveal his next market.

A rookie-scale or minimum-salary player may create substantial surplus value for a team. That does not mean every team can acquire him, that he can immediately renegotiate, or that his next agreement should reproduce the same ratio. The Contract Engine provides a separate scenario view; its output should still be checked against verified terms and applicable rules.

Three checks before drawing a conclusion

  1. Check the salary season. Do not compare current production with a future annual salary without making the change explicit.
  2. Check the input coverage. Missing or incorrect scoring, efficiency, honors, or salary inputs can distort the result.
  3. Check the basketball role. A cost-efficient specialist is not automatically a solution to an unrelated roster need.

Use Smart CVR to identify a question worth investigating: why is this player expensive or inexpensive relative to the modeled production? Then verify the contract and examine the underlying basketball contribution. Read the five-lens guide to put salary value back beside the rest of the profile.